| Appendix: Data used in the empirical analysis | |||||||||
| Variable No | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | |
| Year | C | P | W | F | L | V | R | DQ | |
| 1969 | Q1 | 144 | 18.7% | 0.972 | 0.323 | 897 | 2.001 | 8.00% | 0.87% |
| . | Q2 | 156 | 18.7% | 0.977 | 0.292 | 775 | 1.977 | 8.00% | 0.46% |
| . | Q3 | 150 | 18.7% | 0.976 | 0.280 | 586 | 1.971 | 8.00% | 0.01% |
| . | Q4 | 200 | 18.7% | 0.990 | 0.289 | 907 | 1.958 | 8.00% | 1.38% |
| 1970 | Q1 | 211 | 18.8% | 1.081 | 0.333 | 872 | 1.963 | 7.50% | 3.51% |
| . | Q2 | 242 | 18.8% | 0.954 | 0.328 | 871 | 1.958 | 7.00% | 2.42% |
| . | Q3 | 147 | 18.8% | 0.915 | 0.314 | 798 | 1.966 | 7.00% | 1.60% |
| . | Q4 | 221 | 18.8% | 0.937 | 0.329 | 969 | 1.969 | 7.00% | 1.85% |
| 1971 | Q1 | 156 | 22.4% | 1.067 | 0.343 | 981 | 2.015 | 6.00% | 0.45% |
| .. | Q2 | 172 | 22.4% | 0.961 | 0.330 | 966 | 2.001 | 5.00% | 1.21% |
| . | Q3 | 147 | 22.4% | 0.936 | 0.337 | 744 | 2.007 | 5.00% | 0.54% |
| . | Q4 | 176 | 22.4% | 0.928 | 0.343 | 998 | 2.054 | 4.50% | 2.18% |
| 1972 | Q1 | 145 | 34.3% | 1.089 | 0.389 | 760 | 2.163 | 5.00% | 1.05% |
| . | Q2 | 149 | 34.3% | 0.980 | 0.390 | 945 | 2.187 | 6.00% | 0.66% |
| . | Q3 | 76 | 34.3% | 0.977 | 0.427 | 777 | 2.238 | 7.00% | 1.83% |
| . | Q4 | 148 | 34.3% | 0.917 | 0.453 | 1,024 | 2.226 | 7.50% | 0.68% |
| 1973 | Q1 | 143 | 36.9% | 1.096 | 0.488 | 877 | 2.200 | 9.50% | 5.01% |
| . | Q2 | 127 | 36.9% | 0.993 | 0.490 | 799 | 2.322 | 9.00% | 2.64% |
| .. | Q3 | 85 | 36.9% | 0.917 | 0.508 | 614 | 2.396 | 10.00% | 0.34% |
| .. | Q4 | 145 | 36.9% | 0.943 | 0.559 | 773 | 2.419 | 13.00% | 2.63% |
| 1974 | Q1 | 161 | 27.1% | 1.104 | 0.641 | 710 | 2.521 | 13.00% | 4.93% |
| .. | Q2 | 184 | 27.1% | 1.011 | 0.605 | 653 | 2.378 | 12.50% | 2.20% |
| .. | Q3 | 162 | 27.1% | 0.978 | 0.600 | 463 | 2.287 | 12.00% | 2.89% |
| .. | Q4 | 269 | 27.1% | 1.016 | 0.613 | 749 | 2.273 | 12.00% | 4.92% |
| 1975 | Q1 | 240 | 28.8% | 0.936 | 0.598 | 713 | 2.178 | 11.50% | 0.21% |
| . | Q2 | 277 | 28.8% | 0.854 | 0.554 | 844 | 2.117 | 9.50% | 0.20% |
| . | Q3 | 182 | 28.8% | 0.814 | 0.525 | 829 | 2.101 | 10.00% | 1.13% |
| . | Q4 | 257 | 28.8% | 0.827 | 0.516 | 1,334 | 2.044 | 11.00% | 0.15% |
| 1976 | Q1 | 232 | 24.9% | 0.869 | 0.530 | 1,238 | 1.998 | 9.50% | 2.02% |
| . | Q2 | 258 | 24.9% | 0.833 | 0.502 | 1,317 | 2.018 | 10.50% | 3.62% |
| . | Q3 | 188 | 24.9% | 0.803 | 0.489 | 1,138 | 2.018 | 12.00% | 1.50% |
| . | Q4 | 299 | 24.9% | 0.787 | 0.473 | 1,705 | 1.931 | 14.00% | 3.41% |
| 1977 | Q1 | 256 | 24.2% | 0.975 | 0.519 | 1,554 | 1.898 | 11.50% | 2.78% |
| . | Q2 | 258 | 24.2% | 0.916 | 0.479 | 1,490 | 1.900 | 9.50% | 0.35% |
| . | Q3 | 176 | 24.2% | 0.853 | 0.455 | 1,150 | 1.909 | 8.00% | 1.61% |
| . | Q4 | 314 | 24.2% | 0.850 | 0.439 | 1,745 | 1.924 | 7.00% | 1.87% |
| 1978 | Q1 | 241 | 18.1% | 1.162 | 0.454 | 1,542 | 1.949 | 6.50% | 2.61% |
| . | Q2 | 228 | 18.1% | 1.022 | 0.395 | 1,553 | 1.917 | 7.50% | 4.53% |
| . | Q3 | 171 | 18.1% | 0.978 | 0.386 | 1,125 | 1.925 | 10.00% | 1.16% |
| . | Q4 | 289 | 18.1% | 0.989 | 0.404 | 1,631 | 1.929 | 12.50% | 1.27% |
| 1979 | Q1 | 232 | 22.1% | 1.331 | 0.450 | 1,341 | 1.948 | 13.50% | 3.22% |
| . | Q2 | 149 | 22.1% | 1.137 | 0.393 | 1,373 | 1.873 | 12.00% | 5.92% |
| . | Q3 | 154 | 22.1% | 1.029 | 0.376 | 977 | 1.848 | 14.00% | 0.08% |
| . | Q4 | 254 | 22.1% | 1.006 | 0.381 | 1,395 | 1.822 | 17.00% | 0.56% |
| 1980 | Q1 | 212 | 22.0% | 1.051 | 0.410 | 1,274 | 1.809 | 17.00% | 1.96% |
| . | Q2 | 246 | 22.0% | 0.981 | 0.406 | 932 | 1.837 | 17.00% | 3.54% |
| . | Q3 | 185 | 22.0% | 0.910 | 0.404 | 829 | 1.852 | 16.00% | 0.04% |
| . | Q4 | 306 | 22.0% | 0.976 | 0.420 | 1,502 | 1.894 | 14.00% | 8.17% |
| 1981 | Q1 | 302 | 21.9% | 0.999 | 0.436 | 1,498 | 1.915 | 14.00% | 0.64% |
| . | Q2 | 200 | 21.9% | 0.976 | 0.435 | 1,725 | 1.957 | 12.00% | 3.20% |
| . | Q3 | 199 | 21.9% | 0.933 | 0.431 | 1,443 | 1.970 | 14.00% | 1.98% |
| . | Q4 | 289 | 21.9% | 1.011 | 0.481 | 2,224 | 2.081 | 15.00% | 5.53% |
| 1982 | Q1 | 364 | 25.0% | 1.008 | 0.565 | 2,612 | 2.092 | 13.50% | 4.36% |
| . | Q2 | 354 | 25.0% | 0.949 | 0.562 | 1,834 | 2.088 | 12.50% | 1.32% |
| . | Q3 | 261 | 25.0% | 0.894 | 0.553 | 1,800 | 2.132 | 11.00% | 2.03% |
| . | Q4 | 443 | 25.0% | 0.900 | 0.584 | 2,350 | 2.146 | 9.50% | 3.30% |
| 1983 | Q1 | 409 | 30.4% | 0.919 | 0.629 | 3,122 | 2.168 | 11.00% | 1.46% |
| . | Q2 | 461 | 30.4% | 0.892 | 0.615 | 3,082 | 2.214 | 10.00% | 0.05% |
| . | Q3 | 346 | 30.4% | 0.800 | 0.583 | 2,461 | 2.213 | 9.50% | 4.50% |
| . | Q4 | 560 | 30.4% | 0.812 | 0.604 | 3,402 | 2.231 | 9.00% | 0.72% |
| 1984 | Q1 | 472 | 32.0% | 0.886 | 0.670 | 3,397 | 2.253 | 8.75% | 0.34% |
| . | Q2 | 489 | 32.0% | 0.837 | 0.648 | 3,424 | 2.304 | 9.00% | 2.33% |
| . | Q3 | 352 | 32.0% | 0.781 | 0.606 | 2,721 | 2.358 | 11.00% | 0.74% |
| . | Q4 | 518 | 32.0% | 0.817 | 0.663 | 3,864 | 2.378 | 10.00% | 1.92% |
| 1985 | Q1 | 514 | 45.7% | 0.930 | 0.728 | 3,597 | 2.383 | 14.00% | 1.25% |
| . | Q2 | 556 | 45.7% | 0.895 | 0.699 | 3,469 | 2.369 | 13.00% | 0.09% |
| . | Q3 | 387 | 45.7% | 0.841 | 0.661 | 2,721 | 2.443 | 12.00% | 0.19% |
| . | Q4 | 518 | 45.7% | 0.847 | 0.680 | 3,934 | 2.416 | 11.50% | 1.15% |
| 1986 | Q1 | 477 | 42.4% | 0.999 | 0.776 | 3,671 | 2.513 | 12.50% | 3.53% |
| . | Q2 | 568 | 42.4% | 0.927 | 0.732 | 4,075 | 2.567 | 10.50% | 5.10% |
| . | Q3 | 361 | 42.4% | 0.857 | 0.686 | 2,987 | 2.563 | 10.00% | 2.71% |
| . | Q4 | 508 | 42.4% | 0.859 | 0.692 | 4,165 | 2.390 | 11.00% | 2.06% |
| 1987 | Q1 | 380 | 51.4% | 0.949 | 0.768 | 3,520 | 2.655 | 10.50% | 2.77% |
| . | Q2 | 394 | 51.4% | 0.914 | 0.773 | 3,937 | 2.682 | 9.50% | 0.84% |
| . | Q3 | 252 | 51.4% | 0.825 | 0.730 | 3,036 | 2.695 | 10.00% | 4.70% |
| . | Q4 | 464 | 51.4% | 0.812 | 0.756 | 3,912 | 2.757 | 9.00% | 2.83% |
| 1988 | Q1 | 403 | 60.8% | 0.938 | 0.815 | 3,195 | 2.795 | 9.00% | 3.65% |
| . | Q2 | 376 | 60.8% | 0.897 | 0.866 | 2,810 | 2.836 | 8.00% | 0.32% |
| . | Q3 | 336 | 60.8% | 0.849 | 0.895 | 2,469 | 2.881 | 11.00% | 0.80% |
| . | Q4 | 356 | 60.8% | 0.819 | 0.884 | 2,965 | 2.892 | 13.00% | 3.79% |
| 1989 | Q1 | 405 | 48.0% | 0.919 | 1.078 | 2,603 | 2.959 | 13.00% | 1.77% |
| . | Q2 | 431 | 48.0% | 0.866 | 1.119 | 2,414 | 3.057 | 14.00% | 1.91% |
| . | Q3 | 259 | 48.0% | 0.832 | 1.180 | 1,747 | 3.192 | 14.00% | 1.49% |
| . | Q4 | 543 | 48.0% | 0.836 | 1.242 | 2,663 | 3.124 | 15.00% | 0.59% |
| 1990 | Q1 | 516 | 47.7% | 1.010 | 1.310 | 2,567 | 3.255 | 14.00% | 2.07% |
| . | Q2 | 545 | 47.7% | 0.991 | 1.337 | 2,814 | 3.322 | 14.00% | 0.15% |
| . | Q3 | 442 | 47.7% | 0.969 | 1.321 | 2,027 | 3.346 | 14.00% | 1.98% |
| . | Q4 | 942 | 47.7% | 1.003 | 1.418 | 3,048 | 3.432 | 14.00% | 0.96% |
| 1991 | Q1 | 914 | 12.4% | 1.095 | 1.478 | 3,327 | 3.434 | 13.50% | 3.28% |
| . | Q2 | 871 | 12.4% | 1.110 | 1.539 | 3,356 | 3.431 | 12.00% | 1.94% |
| . | Q3 | 620 | 12.4% | 1.089 | 1.254 | 3,301 | 3.455 | 11.00% | 0.66% |
| . | Q4 | 968 | 12.4% | 1.141 | 1.306 | 5,067 | 3.439 | 10.50% | 1.14% |
| 1992 | Q1 | 1044 | 17.7% | 1.156 | 1.309 | 5,440 | 3.474 | 10.50% | 0.68% |
| .. | Q2 | 952 | 17.7% | 1.174 | 1.319 | 5,615 | 3.445 | 10.00% | 1.44% |
| . | Q3 | 855 | 17.7% | 1.141 | 1.228 | 4,700 | 3.448 | 12.00% | 0.69% |
| . | Q4 | 979 | 17.7% | 1.185 | 1.316 | 6,072 | 3.426 | 7.00% | 1.14% |
| 1993 | Q1 | 968 | 22.4% | 0.877 | 1.274 | 6,332 | 3.376 | 6.00% | 0.47% |
| . | Q2 | 843 | 22.4% | 0.870 | 1.236 | 6,043 | 3.371 | 6.00% | 0.24% |
| . | Q3 | 646 | 22.4% | 0.841 | 1.153 | 5,577 | 3.345 | 6.00% | 0.12% |
| . | Q4 | 728 | 22.4% | 0.846 | 1.107 | 6,473 | 3.373 | 5.50% | 1.16% |
| 1994 | Q1 | 679 | 23.8% | 1.069 | 1.053 | 6,235 | 3.374 | 5.25% | 1.24% |
| . | Q2 | 613 | 23.8% | 1.038 | 1.003 | 5,201 | 3.344 | 5.25% | 0.99% |
| . | Q3 | 565 | 23.8% | 0.995 | 0.934 | 4,356 | 3.332 | 5.75% | 0.41% |
| . | Q4 | 544 | 23.8% | 0.987 | 0.888 | 4,946 | 3.327 | 6.25% | 0.91% |
| 1995 | Q1 | 534 | n/a | n/a | 0.912 | 4,887 | 3.365 | 6.75% | 1.45% |
| . | Q2 | 379 | n/a | n/a | 0.800 | 4,078 | 3.395 | 6.75% | 0.69% |
| . | Q3 | 448 | n/a | n/a | 0.761 | 3,971 | 3.449 | 6.75% | 1.28% |
| . | Q4 | 783 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 3,792 | 3.504 | 6.50% | n/a |
| 1996 | Q1 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 3,803 | n/a | 6.25% | n/a |
| . | Q2 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 3,359 | n/a | 6.00% | n/a |
| . | Q3 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 3,630 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| . | Q4 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 3,744 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Sources:
UK National Accounts, Financial Statistics, Economic Trends, various editions, CSO, HMSO
Housing and Construction Statistics, Department of the Environment, Scottish Office, & Welsh Office, HMSO
Statistics Directorate, Department of Trade and Industry, London